Alastair Campbell recounts witnessing an unprecedented Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelensky.
He compares it to a past incident where he saw Putin lose his temper with Tony Blair.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
Welcome to a Restless Politics live stream. Friday night, I think we're both expecting a quiet night in, and I've just witnessed, I honestly can't find the words, the most extraordinary bust-up in the Oval Office between Trump And the vile Vance, who really showed his true colours today, with President Zelensky of Ukraine. I don't know how much you were able to catch of it, Rory, but I don't think I've ever, ever, ever seen anything like it in public. The only thing I ever saw in private, I once saw Vladimir Putin absolutely losing his rag with Tony Blair. But even that was nothing like this, nothing. (Time 0:01:58)
Trump's Ukraine Policy
Trump's behavior, including his claims about ending the war quickly and his attacks on Zelensky, has caused widespread concern.
Macron and Starmer tried to convince Trump to moderate his stance on Ukraine, offering increased European financial support.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Let's just quickly bring people up to date. So quick reminder, Trump campaigned saying that if he came into office, he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. He then announced talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia, and has gone out calling Zelensky a dictator and saying that he's very unpopular and accusing him of starting the war and saying That the US had spent three times more than it's actually spent in Ukraine. Everybody, of course, very, very worried. So that then lent to an emergency scrambling by President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer, who flew over to Washington. And the major objectives of their meetings, which were this week, Macron's meeting was on Monday, Starmer's meetings just happened, was to try to convince Trump to get back into a more Moderate position on Ukraine. And really what they were hoping to do was say, okay, Europe will put up much more money. In fact, they were even suggesting Europe will put up all the money, provided the US is prepared to continue to sell weapon systems and provide something called security guarantees, Which we can get into a bit later. While this was all been going on, Trump has been making demands to Ukraine for a minerals deal. And in the draft that people saw, he was asking for 50% of all Ukraine's minerals now and in the future. It's going to be about $500 billion worth of minerals for the United States. In return, it appeared for nothing. President Zelensky then has flown out to the United States he arrived there was quite a warm greeting on the steps of the White House where Trump made some jokes about Zelensky's clothes Said it was a great honor that he was visiting and then they sat down in this rather strange pre-press conference so there seems to be and i'd love to ask you about this just to explain the Logistics this seems to be a pre-press conference then they go to their meeting and then traditionally they do a press conference at the end what's this pre-press conference where The problem started well (Time 0:02:41)
Orchestrated Ambush
Campbell believes the Oval Office clash was a deliberate ambush by Trump and Vance, aimed at provoking conflict for ratings.
Trump's focus on past grievances and personal attacks, rather than substantive discussion, supports this view.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
What this was, what this became was a full-scale shouting match. I think deliberate. I think deliberately provoked. It felt to me like an ambush. And the point is that we were talking this afternoon, we should tell our listeners, we did an interview this afternoon with Martin Wolf, the guy who's now written four books about Trump. And he said something very, very interesting. He said, you guys keep trying to find out what makes this guy tick. He's not a serious person. He's a reality TV guy. All he cares about, he said, remember this, are ratings and conflict. And he knows that to drive his ratings and keep him in the public eye and get all the attention he needs, he has to have conflict. If you were serious about this deal that he's talked about for the last few days, you'd have welcomed Zelensky, your teams would have done all the work in advance, and then if it was still Work to do, you'd have gone for the meeting, done a few pictures, shaken hands, gone for the meeting. Instead of which they had full on his usual talking points about Biden was terrible. Biden did nothing. I wouldn't, there would have been no war if I'd have been present. October 7th wouldn't have happened. Inflation wouldn't have happened. Raging about, and I think this is the of his hatred of Zelensky, revisiting this thing about, you know, Hunter Biden, when he asked for favors, he asked Zelensky to do stuff which Zelensky Felt he shouldn't. But I think the other thing that really, I don't know whether it should have shocked me, but it did shock me. There's Zelensky's an elected president of Ukraine. Very important country, at the height of things. There's nothing wrong with people in the meetings coming in, but the way Vance came in was utterly disgusting. And it made me think it was a deliberate, intimidating, bullying behavior. (Time 0:05:43)
The Trigger
A question from Polish radio about trusting Putin triggered Trump's attacks on Zelensky, leading to Vance's intervention.
Zelensky defended his diplomatic efforts and questioned Vance's understanding of the situation.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Again, for people who didn't view it, and then get your analysis on it. So the meeting started relatively calmly in a normal way. And then a journalist from Polish radio asked quite a direct question about whether it made sense for Trump to trust Putin. And at that point, President Trump started attacking Zelensky. He started saying that Zelensky had a very bad attitude towards Putin. And then J.D. Vance, apropos of not very much, suddenly weighed in and made a speech mocking Biden, saying America had been chest thumping and saying that America had made no attempts to do deals, But he, Trump, was going to bring peace. And it was at that point that Zelensky felt that he needed to stand up for himself. And he said, and I think partly offended maybe that the vice president had interrupted him this way, he turned to J.D. Vance and he said, look, we did a lot of deals. Macron, Merkel, myself, we signed deals with Putin. He promised we did gas deals, and he broke all those ceasefire agreements and deals. And then when Vance challenged him again on diplomacy, Zelensky said, what diplomacy? And eventually said, and have you actually ever even visited Ukraine? And it was at that point that things really began to get out of control, because they started shouting at him being disrespectful, not showing enough gratitude to the United States. You don't have any cards. Let me tell you, this is very rude. You mustn't talk to us like this. You've done enough talking. Okay, over to you for analysis now. I've given a little. (Time 0:07:38)
Zelensky's Dilemma
Trump's demands for a minerals deal from Ukraine, without offering substantial concessions, put Zelensky in a difficult position.
Zelensky likely hoped that a minerals deal, combined with European funding, could secure US security guarantees.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Disgusting. And then the story, at least, that's just been printed in The Independent is that they then went into an hour of meetings. And at the end of that hour, Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, asked Zelensky to leave the building. And Trump then posted on True Social saying, this guy isn't interested in peace. And part of the problem, obviously, why Zelensky is on edge, presumably, is that he's in an impossible situation. Trump has been asking for $500 billion, which is much more than the United States has given, and offering nothing in return. Zelensky has been sitting on his tongue, being as polite as he can, hoping, because the Europeans have been encouraging him to believe this, that maybe if he gave a minerals deal, maybe If the Europeans put up the money, the United States would provide some kind of security guarantee in return. But that phrase, security guarantee, hasn't happened at all. And can I just try to dig into this maybe just for a little bit so that we get into the question of what these different deals are, what it is that Trump seems to want, what Putin seems to want, What Europe seems to want, what Zelensky seems to want. So let's start with Europe and Zelensky. Their starting point, which was pretty similar to President Biden's starting point, was that Russian economy is in trouble. Russia has been making advances, but very, very slowly. I think it was you that said it would take 88 years for Russia to be able to conquer the whole of Ukraine at this rate. You could get a deal in place in which maybe Putin held on to bits of Eastern Ukraine, but Western Ukraine was fully secured. Fully secured for Zelensky means becoming part of the European Union and NATO. Becoming part of NATO means Article 5 protection, which basically means that if Putin stepped foot into that part of Ukraine, NATO will be obliged to respond with a nuclear missile Strike. It's pretty extreme stuff. Putin's demand, on the other hand, has been that he gets full recognition for the territory he's taken. He gets more territory. He's got more bits of territory that he wants. He wants Ukraine completely demilitarized. He wants Zelensky gone. He wants all sanctions lifted and Eastern Ukraine recognized as part of Russia. And it now, I think, is increasingly clear that the Trump plan is the Putin plan. And why? Well, maybe these reasons. Number one, he may have a very strange relationship to Putin, and you talked about that a little bit. He's got something in his head that Putin backed him over Hunter Biden. Secondly, there are people in Trump's administration who have a national security ploy where they believe that China is the priority, Russia is the distraction. And some of the more imaginative ones even believe they might be able to peel Russia off and use it as an ally against China. Thirdly, sense that he feels he's wasting a lot of money. Fourthly, he's got a lot of isolationists in MAGA behind him. And I think finally, he wants to present himself as the great peacemaker. He wants to be able to come and say, I ended this war. Right, back over to you. (Time 0:11:30)
Putin's Manipulation
Campbell argues Putin has manipulated Trump, exploiting Trump's desire to be seen as a dealmaker.
The focus on a minerals deal, particularly for resources in occupied territories, highlights the lack of serious diplomacy.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
Well, I think this thing about being the great peacemaker and the great dealmaker, and when he saw Macron on Monday, he was saying, you know, all my life is deals. You have to understand I'm a dealmaker. I make great deals. Putin has completely played him on this, totally played him. Putin's first big step was to get back at the top table. And the top table, when it comes to pretty much any big international issue with the UN so weak at the moment, is the United States. So he has a one-on phone call. That's where this all started. Trump came out and said, I've had this long chat with Putin. And he started to say, I know him and I trust him and all this. That was the other thing that I think triggered Zelensky slightly, was he's sitting there, his country having been invaded, Trump not having said a single word of criticism, pretty Much since he returned to office of Putin. And he's saying, yeah, I believe him. I believe the guy. If he says he won't invade, he won't invade. And then into this whole mineral thing. And the minerals, of course, I hadn't quite realized that so much of the mineral wealth that we're talking about, I had a very good podcast, the German podcast today with a woman called Florence Gaupp, was it? She works for NATO in Rome. And I hadn't quite realized the extent to which a lot of these rare earth and minerals are in the occupied part. And so Zelensky has been bullied into doing this deal, which as you say, 500 billion, which Ben Wallace on the radio earlier was calling blatant extortion, which Scaramucci has called Extortion, which I think you have as well. And so he's basically been put in there and told, we're going to sign this deal. We're going to sign this deal. And it was perfectly obvious that the groundwork hadn't been done. It wasn't like, you know, Keir Starmer knew that Trump was going to accept the state visit, and they knew they were going to say Chagos Islands, because the work had been done. That hadn't happened. And that is not serious diplomacy. So I do think Michael Wall's point about him just not being serious. Now, what he will feel now, I don't know. As you say, the MAGA crowd, and it's actually pathetic. Do you remember when Boris Johnson was prime minister? And anytime there was a scandal, the cabinet were given these cut and paste tweets by Dominic Cummings to say, you know. Well, the Trump cabinet is now doing the same, including Marco Rubio, who, by the way, looked absolutely sick in that meeting. (Time 0:14:50)
Rubio's Discomfort
Marco Rubio's discomfort during the meeting reflects the hypocrisy of Trump's actions, contradicting Rubio's past stance on Putin.
The planted question about Zelensky's attire further suggests a deliberate attempt to undermine him.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Just remind listeners a little on Marco Rubio and why he looks sick. So Marco Rubio was one of the leading voices in the Senate of skepticism towards Putin. He was the guy who used to ask other people in confirmation hearings, as I think we've discussed in the podcast, is Putin a dictator? He has always been on the record saying you can never trust Putin. Putin doesn't want a deal. All he wants to do is weaken the United States. And now he's having to claim that he believes Trump and that he believes Trump's fundamental claim, which is Trump thinks he can hand over Ukraine to Putin. And he sort of implies that he thinks, and then Europe will be safe, and that NATO will be safe, and Putin will back him on China. All this is unbelievably naive, because he's got no leverage over Putin on Europe. He's got no leverage over Putin on NATO. By which I mean, now that he's signaled that he doesn't believe in security guarantees, I'm not quite sure where NATO is at all.
Alastair Campbell
Let me read you his tweet, which is the same tweet that lots of the others would have. Thank you, POTUS, President of the United States, for standing up for America in a way that no president has ever had the courage to do before. Thank you for putting America first. America is with you. Now, you've sat in the meeting. You've seen what's gone on. Is that a serious Secretary of State who is sitting there? Just look at his face there. Look at how he looks during the meeting. He knows it's going really, really badly. And yet he cannot bring himself afterwards to do anything other than what he's told to do. And by the way, Roy, you talked about some of the questions. And as with the Macron, they clearly have planted questions. One of the questions, and Trump was giving the guy a little wink, was this guy who said to Zelensky, couldn you have actually worn a suit? Now, Zelensky, as we all know, has dressed like that for a reason, to show that his country's at war. And I think a lot of people respected him for that. So Zelensky rightly just sort of batted it off. But then Trump gave his little wink to the guy as if to say, thanks for that. They gave him a little punch as well. And I just feel that if you don't have a serious government in the White House at this time, you have Trump. (Time 0:17:21)
Europe's Dilemma
Macron and Starmer's diplomatic efforts seem wasted, as Trump appears set to withdraw US support for Ukraine.
This leaves Europe with the difficult decision of whether to continue supporting Ukraine without US assistance.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Macron and Starmer's trips to Washington seem now to have been wasted. Their objective was to get there before Zelensky, get US security guarantees. Macron believes that he'd charmed Trump to do that. Starmer famously turned up with a letter from the king. They got a lot of sort of warm smiles and no real language. And the end of it is the week ends with this incredibly aggressive humiliation of Zelensky. So what can we read from this? I think the worst case scenario is this, and it seems increasingly as though it's probable. So not just the worst case scenario, it's probably what's going to likely to happen. If Trump holds to his current position, he will withdraw US support from Ukraine. He will withdraw all US military assets from Ukraine. He will withdraw all US money from Ukraine. But worse than that, he will also not allow European countries to continue to buy American systems in order to continue the war in Ukraine. He will wash his hands to Zelensky. He will say, I tried to make a deal. You wouldn't sign the minerals deal. I hand you over to Putin. And that is, I'm afraid, unbelievably difficult. We can talk on this podcast about Europe stepping up. But at that point, it's no longer US and Europe's war, it's Europe's war only. And there are two questions for that. Can Europe fight that war? And would Europe want to fight that war? Can Europe fight that war? Well, very, very difficult in the next two years. It would take at least 24 months before Europe was in any position to replace a lot of the key US equipment. Would Europe want to fight that war? Does Macron have the support, the strength in his own parliament? Does Starmer, my sense is Starmer hasn't been pitching himself as the grand big picture international statesman. Is he going to want to take the full burden of the Ukraine war? And what's really involved? Well, I think the next thing that will happen is Putin will start advancing very, very fast. Because without US anti-aircraft missiles, he's going to be able to get helicopters, drones, much, much closer. Without US artillery, he's going to be able to push his artillery much closer. Without US electronic warfare, the drones will be able to take out the Ukrainian tanks, etc, etc. So I think we are in a situation in which almost certainly Putin can guarantee that he can radically increase his territory. But I think it's not impossible that Putin could march all the way through Kiev to Moldova. (Time 0:20:10)
Turkey's Role
Turkey emerges as a key player due to its military capabilities and rivalry with Russia, potentially providing crucial support to Ukraine.
Europe will need to build up its own defense capabilities to fill the gap left by a US withdrawal.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
We're getting thousands of comments here. And they're going so fast and I can't stop them. Here's a good question for you, Rory. Would Turkey step up to help Ukraine?
Rory Stewart
Yes. So Turkey has been very interesting and is a really, really important player here. So Turkey has a traditional rivalry with Russia in the Black Sea and in Syria, as people know. Turkey has a pretty formidable army and an army that actually has a lot of combat experience and is prepared to fight. Turkey's been providing a lot of drones to Ukraine, and Turkey has offered to get involved in the ground. So any European defense alliance that you tried to put around Ukraine would definitely have to include Turkey. And it would certainly try to pull in Japan, South Korea, Australia, those major economies. But you're still missing critical things. I mean, and this is, you know, part of this is obviously our fault. We never developed enough anti-aircraft missile capacity. We never developed proper satellite coordination. We haven't got a proper replacement for Starlink. We're not good enough at electronic warfare. There are these gaping holes. And whether it's true they'd take two years to fill, I suppose some people might say we moved much faster during the Second World War, but it's a really, really big lift. And I think the problem, Alastair, is that you and I, and many, many people on these comments are desperately thinking, what do we do to support Ukraine in the absence of the US? It's much more difficult to face the possibility that the odds are really against you if the US pulls out. I mean, really, sure. (Time 0:30:40)
Global Implications
The escalating global situation necessitates increased defense spending, requiring difficult choices about fiscal rules and taxation.
Trump's actions have global implications, affecting US relations with its allies and potentially emboldening China.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
Yeah. Samuel Reates here, Rory, with a very sort of stay awake at night question. Could you envision a scenario where the UK is at war with Russia, but the USA is not? That's a big thing. Because, of course, you know, the entire sort of thinking about NATO is about preventing war and seeing Russia as the enemy, as it were, for a lot of its period. There have been moments of rapprochement that have gone a bit, but in recent years, that's gone away again. But what you have a sense of now is that Trump is an ally of Putin, and most of the other countries that thought they were allies of the United States are not allies of Putin. So Samuel, I hope not, but I think that's the kind of scenario planning that now does have to be thought about.
Rory Stewart
Yeah, it's, I mean, there's clearly something which we've talked about before, which, I mean, and you know, this Michael Wolff interview, I recommend to people who haven't heard it, But.
Alastair Campbell
Well, we haven't seen it yet, Robbie, so they can't have heard it.
Rory Stewart
They can't have heard it. He focuses a lot on this idea that Trump's not serious. Look, I agree with that, but I think that's also a bit misleading. Because I think, as you've pointed out, what he does in the world is certainly serious. So the question of whether or not he himself is serious is a little bit misleading.
Alastair Campbell
Yeah, the impact of what he does is incredibly serious.
Rory Stewart
And I think it's also true that maybe Michael Wolff overdoes this idea that there's nothing constant about Trump. I think there are certain things that are constant about Trump. And one of them is a longstanding admiration for strongmen, a longstanding admiration for Vladimir Putin, a sense that the United States should be dominating the Americas, that Russia Should be dominating Eastern Europe, and implicitly that China should be dominating Asia seems to be somewhere in the back of his head. And then there's other stuff too. He clearly is interested consistently in tariffs, in immigration, and it's getting more ideological. I mean, this is the other thing that I think we haven't fully articulated yet. This is a much more ideological administration than Trump's first presidency because Musk and Vance in particular have become theorists, very strange theorists on democracy, freedom Of speech, getting in behind these far-right groups in Europe, undermining our own democracies from within. That wasn't part of Trump's playbook last time. And this stuff, authoritarian, pretty fascist in nature, feeds in pretty well to stealing minerals from Ukraine, giving Putin leeway. And as I think that question points out, I don't think it's really an open question anymore whether the US is on Russia's side or Europe's side. It is clearly on Russia's side. I mean, this decision and this spectacle, this horrifying spectacle, is Trump declaring for Russia against Europe. (Time 0:35:37)
Nuclear Deterrence
Trump's actions undermine nuclear deterrence, increasing the risk of conflict, particularly in vulnerable areas like Lithuania.
Putin's perception of weakened US resolve could embolden him to challenge NATO's security guarantees.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
World War Three from Sue Lewis? Let me try to take that seriously, because it's obviously sounds terrifying. But just explain. Well, it's also, it's what Trump said to Zelensky, you're risking World War Three. And as usual with Trump, he's flipped it around in a bizarre way because it is he that's bringing us closer to World War III. So essentially, the way that we prevented World War III, in other words, nuclear war, since the invention of the atom bomb, was through this extraordinary nuclear deterrence. And right at the heart of nuclear deterrence was NATO. And the idea was that Russia and Soviet Union would not attack NATO countries, and NATO would not attack Russia and Soviet Union because of these nuclear weapons. And it was psychological. And this is why what Trump has done is so unbelievably devastating. Deterrence only works if people have faith that you're going to use it. And for 80 years, for better or for worse, Russia has believed that the United States would stand behind its Article 5 guarantees of NATO, and that there was a good chance they would use Nuclear weapons to defend NATO territory. In other words, we've had peace and avoided nuclear war paradoxically because of the threat of nuclear war. What will happen now, almost certainly, is that Putin will sense that Trump is no longer willing to defend somewhere like Lithuania. Lithuania is pretty easy for Putin to get into. In fact, he has a small bit of territory, which he can join together by going through Lithuania. And I think we can take it as read that Trump would not be firing nuclear weapons at Putin were he to go into Lithuania. But Lithuania is a NATO country. So once he's taken one NATO country, then the whole thing opens up. And then the thing that leads to World War III, of course, isn't just Putin. It's the way in which Europe responds. How does Poland respond? Well, Poland, of course, has spent a lot of its historical existence being part of Russia, being subjugated by the Soviet Union. It's a pretty recent experience. The Baltics were part of the Soviet Union itself. So for those countries, they will then respond violently to try to defend themselves, and the risk of war increases dramatically. There's also quite (Time 0:40:10)
State Visit and Ambassador
The hosts discuss the implications of the meeting for King Charles' state visit invitation to Trump, amid growing criticism.
The potential recall of the British ambassador is raised as a sign of protest against Trump's actions.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
Rory, I'm going to close by pointing out that a lot of the questions, a lot of the comments coming in, should Britain withdraw the offer of a state visit? What will King Charles be thinking as he watches all this? Now, I don't know anybody who's really close to King Charles to sort of just be able to pick up a phone. Do you know anybody who could sort of maybe give me some indication of that?
Rory Stewart
This is a very, very unfair question. But look, it's a really, really difficult position now that the king is in. And remember, Canadians are now very upset.
Alastair Campbell
Oh, Rory, I've been looking at the Canadian media all day. They really weren't. I mean, I've spoken to sources close to Keir Starmer, who actually said that he was about to say we didn't discuss it. But when Trump actually sort of cut in and called another question. But Canadian media today is absolutely on the rampage about this idea that the head of state, the head of our state, who is also the head of the Canadian state, is giving a state visit to This guy who says he's going to take over Canada.
Rory Stewart
And I'm afraid this will have been an idea from the prime minister. This is not something that the king or Buckingham Palace generates.
Alastair Campbell
Here we go. Sources close to the king distancing himself of the state visit. There's a great question here, Roy. Let's close on this one. Grail Appleby, should we be recalling the British ambassador? We can't recall Peter when he's just arrived. We can't do that. That would be cool. That's a lovely, lovely. Anyway, I use, I feel a little bit better than I did, but honestly, when I was watching it, I don't think, I can't remember the last time I felt so angry at watching.
Rory Stewart
It's very, very rare in world events that you get a single moment. I mean, you got that with the assassination of the Archduke in Sarajevo starting the First World War. This moment will become one of the most visible, extraordinary, excruciating moments where the Western Alliance fell apart.
Alastair Campbell
This is the moment where- Or something else happens. But what it is definitely, that was a historic meeting. The thing that came into my head was happening was, you know, was it Khrushchev bragging his shoe on the desk at the United Nations or it was, I mean, you just know the minute it started To kick off, I was actually doing something else and just had it over here. And the minute it started to kick off, I thought, oh my God. And I'm still thinking, oh my God. But you know, you just got to hope that people, grownups, stand up and try to get this thing into a better place, but it's going to be bloody hard. (Time 0:47:01)
