Mark Carney, former Bank of England Governor, is Canada's new Prime Minister.
He's ready to challenge Pierre Poilievre, whom he views as Trump's follower.
Transcript:
Jon Sopel
That is Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, who overnight is becoming Canada's new prime minister. He's ready to fight an election against the conservative Pierre Polyev, who he considers Trump's poodle.
Emily Maitlis
How did he get to this place and what's going on now between Canada and the USA? There's no doubt that Mark Carney has been on quite a journey since he was governor of the Bank of England. But is it possible that the emergence of Carney as the Canadian Prime Minister, slick, smart, articulate, is going to be the counterfoil to Trump, not just in Canada, but around the Liberal world. Welcome to the News Agents.
Speaker 4
It's John.
Emily Maitlis
It's Emily. And a little bit later on, we're going to be looking at the whole issue of online safety. Global are doing a kind of day of this on LBC about how you keep people safe online. And there's some fascinating poll findings from Luke Trill from More In Common, and we'll be speaking to him a little bit later on.
Jon Sopel
Where a figure that you will probably be familiar with or slightly familiar with, Mark Carney, has just won a landslide vote within his party, the Liberal Party of Canada, to become The next prime minister. You will probably be aware that Justin Trudeau, who has served three terms, has fallen massively out of favour with the US administration. Trump keeps referring to him as the governor, the governor of Canada. He keeps talking about Canada as the 51st state. And Trudeau, whose time was probably coming to an end anyway, felt the force of that Trump wrath and intransigence. And on the 6th of January, he announced he was stepping down. So they've had a contest essentially, which has come down to Mark Carney, who has been not just our Bank of England governor, but also Canada's Bank of England governor, and Christopher Freeland, who he was up against, and others. And he won 83% of the party's vote. Yeah. What he hasn't done is won an election yet. We'll talk about that because that is yet to come and all to play for.
Emily Maitlis
Yeah. For the constitutional geekiness of it, there is a really odd position that the Canadian Prime Minister is not in Parliament and their system is much more like ours. And so the idea that he has succeeded as Prime Minister without actually being elected to anything in terms of the Canadian people. His party, yeah, but not the Canadian people, is unique. But there is something else as well, because I think the fundamental point of all of this and why we're so interested in it is that the Liberal Party in Canada were, how can one put it, in The toilet. Their poll ratings were absolutely catastrophic. They were heading to a landslide defeat. And then Donald Trump comes along and starts talking about more for Kunder's Liberal Party than he could ever want. And this is one of the perversities of the politics that we're talking about now, where Donald Trump has shaken the kaleidoscope. And whereas three, four months ago, we were talking about the remorseless rise of far right populist parties who were going to sweep the board in North America, we're going to sweep The board in Europe. And now the liberals, mainstream politics has come back to life as a way of expressing deep unease about some of the things that Donald Trump is saying and doing. And the Liberal Party is suddenly back in the race.
Jon Sopel
And he will take on in the election, Pierre Poliev, who is the Conservative, who looked as if he were a slam dunk just a year ago. And it's worth telling you a little bit about Mark Carney's journey, I think, because he was the guy you'll know him as a very chiseled. He's pretty handsome. He was the governor of the Bank of England, sort of plucked out of Canada by George Osborne and by David Cameron to work here in the UK. And he was the governor throughout the Brexit referendum. He warned very starkly the dangers that Brexit could do. And he was the governor of Canada during the financial crash, the meltdown. And so he is more than anything, somebody who actually loves a crisis. He enjoys a crisis. He's a technocrat. He's a bureaucrat. He's quite sort of Davos leaning, I suppose you could say. But I was talking to somebody who's very close to him, who was actually part of helping his campaign. And this person explained to me that he was looking at Justin Trudeau's position about a year ago. And he'd already moved back to Ottawa, moved his kids into school in Canada four or five years ago, decided that this was something he was going to do. So he'd been thinking about it for a long time. And he saw Justin Trudeau and he thought it only works, this bit only works if Trudeau goes quickly. Because if I don't have enough time to bed in before the election, then I can't win an election. And apparently he was having dinner in the UK, the River Cafe, with Tony Blair in October, just a month before the US election. And this person who I was talking to said it was the moment that he went for a walkabout with Tony Blair around the whole circumference of the restaurant in West London. He suddenly looked at the two of them and went, that's when he knew he was going to run for prime minister. One month later, Trump wins. And this person had breakfast with Mark Carney on the Wednesday. And he said, yep, I'm going to do it. So Carney knew instantly that it was going to be Trump's success that propelled him to a place where he was going to run. Because and I think this is this feels quite unique, he doesn't sound scared of Trump. Everything that you heard in his speech last night is about a man who is bullish, who's going to take him on, who doesn't want to be told that Canada's the 51st state. Suddenly, this is not really about the economy, which it would have been. It's about sovereignty. It's about an existential crisis in which Canada wants to survive as a nation. And that's why I think Carney has found his voice now. And not just for Canada, but also, as you were saying, other sort of democratic leaders around the world, centrist leaders, the Macrons kind of going, maybe even the Democrats saying, Is that the template? Is that what we have to do to kind of stay (Time 0:00:32)
Trump's Impact
Carney's background (Harvard, Oxford, Goldman Sachs, hockey goalie) might appeal to Trump.
Trump's actions are inadvertently revitalizing conventional politics.
Transcript:
Emily Maitlis
In power or get into power? Just while we're doing the Kearney life story bit, because I think this is really interesting as well. You are absolutely right to point out chiselled, good looking, dapper, urbane, smart. And those are the sort of things that Trump quite likes, actually. He will respect the fact that Mark Carney went to Harvard, went to Oxford, went to Goldman Sachs, all the rest of it.
Jon Sopel
Was the ice hockey goalie.
Emily Maitlis
Was the ice hockey goalie. So he's kind of tough as well, as well as being this dapperer Bain figure. And I think that that will play well. I mean, presumably, Trump is going to speak to Carney in the next day or so, I would imagine. You know, you talk about the revivification of kind of conventional politics. I mean, Claudia Scheinbaum, the president of Mexico, her latest approval ratings are 85 percent. No one gets approval ratings of 85 percent. Why? Because she's being seen to stand up to Donald Trump and her people like it. In Canada, it is just the same that people are saying, you don't need to buy American pet food. You can buy Canadian pet food. You can buy Canadian this. You can buy Canadian that. Have you seen the coffee shops where they've changed Americano? They've scrubbed out Americano and called it Canadian Carno, which obviously easy for you to say. But so I just think that you can't ignore the impact of Trump. And apparently Macron's approval ratings in France, again, ticking upwards. We know that in Britain there is strong support for the first time over what Starmer is doing. You know, he's had a pretty torrid few months since he became prime minister. His approval ratings in the past couple of weeks gone up. So, you know, Donald Trump, far from slaying the liberal order, is reviving it. (Time 0:07:10)
Carney's Challenge
Carney faces the challenge of connecting with Canadians due to his international background.
The upcoming Canadian election hinges on economic concerns and sovereignty.
Transcript:
Jon Sopel
Okay, so I think where it gets difficult is Trudeau fell out of favour because ultimately he was seen as somebody who had kind of fallen on the wrong side of woke. He was a bit too liberal. He was a bit too, you know, all the things that sort of Trump was happy to pull down. And I think Mark Carney is still easy for Trump to ridicule as Davos man, as technocrat man, as the man who was in charge of a financial crisis. You know, didn't he actually land you all in it? The man who opposed Brexit. Think Trump can still have a go at Carney for being this sort of slightly technocratic chap who isn't in touch with the people. And I think Mark Carney's biggest challenge, frankly, will be to make Canadians think that he is one of them because he is. He's this international figure. He's got kids at Harvard and he's done his time in London and he's got a British wife. And is he going to feel like he's properly Canadian enough? And he's got Poliev, the conservative, who is trying, I think, to play to the idea that Trudeau was out of touch. He was elitist. He's been in power for three times. Do you really want more of the same? And if it comes down to the economy, you know, then I think Poliev is probably going to be the person that keeps Trump happy and maybe keeps more Canadians happy. But the graph at the moment, which is a phenomenal thing to see, shows just how far the liberals have come up and just how far the conservatives have come down since Trump took office. And they kind of meet in this sort of jawlike snap where they are absolutely on a knife edge. And the election, we think, will probably be called, I was told, in June or October, October being the very latest date. So we've been talking about what (Time 0:08:52)
COVID's Political Impact
COVID-19's impact significantly altered political landscapes, affecting Trudeau, Trump, and Biden.
Trudeau's unpopularity stemmed from his COVID-19 response and perceived economic mismanagement.
Transcript:
Emily Maitlis
Are the drivers that have scrambled our politics so much. And obviously Donald Trump election victory in November, the biggest one most recently. But of course, Trudeau was the victim of the other scrambling of politics, which cost Donald Trump the presidency in 20 and arguably won it for him in 24. And that is COVID. And in the fifth anniversary of COVID, Trudeau was unpopular at home because he was seen as part of the woke alternative that had made Canadians be at home. He took it all too seriously. He destroyed the Canadian economy. We want someone who's going to put it back on its feet. Hey, presto, we can go to the Conservatives now. Donald Trump lost the election in 2020 because of his handling of Covid. But then Biden was seen to have been too woke over it, didn't get the economy ticking enough. And so was a kind of beneficiary of it, arguably, in November 2024.
Jon Sopel
I mean, the polling's really interesting on this, because when Canadians are asked what they most remember about Trudeau, they say legalisation of marijuana. You can decide whether Canadians think that was good or bad. And here's good response to Covid. What they don't think is they've got enough growth in the economy now. So I guess the question is, and it's a bit the question that Kamala would have had with Biden. Does Carney separate himself from Trudeau's Liberal Party? And if so, what does he need to do differently? And the thing I think he's decided to do differently is just to say, sod it. I'm just going to go all out for Trump. I'm going to tell Trump. There's only one show in town.
Emily Maitlis
It's the Trump show. And to be tough and to stand up for Canada's interests and to make sure that you're not going to be the 51st state and to say to the American people, we love being your neighbours, but we Ain't part of the United States of America. (Time 0:10:40)
Tariff Wars
Trump's unpredictable tariff policies create uncertainty for Canada and Mexico.
China pressures Canada to resist Trump's tariffs, creating complex international relations.
Transcript:
Jon Sopel
That is Carney's playbook, and it's a smart one. Let's listen to Trump, who was speaking about tariffs and what he's intending to do to Canada on FLS1 last night.
Emily Maitlis
We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs and we're going to become so rich, you're not going to know where to spend all that money. I'm telling you, you just watch. We're going to have jobs, we're going to have open factories, it's going to be great and the plane is landing and thank you for a lot of good questions. The plane landing, so he's got to go. So honestly, is there any method to the madness of what has happened in the past week over tariffs? They're on, they're off, they're on, they're off. They're 25 percent, they're 10 percent. They won't hit automotive. They will hit automotive. We haven't known from one minute to the next. And the idea that there is this consistency and that there is this grand master plan, if there is one, show it to me.
Jon Sopel
The fact that he is being so capricious about this, I think is really why Canadians or Mexicans have to stand up to this. Because if you're giving in, you don't actually know what you're giving into. It might be nothing, it might be everything. You don't really know, as with Zelensky in Ukraine, where the line is. And this morning, interesting enough, China has come down very heavily on Canadian imports of canola, canola oil, because they've said they do not want to see Canada giving in to Trump. So you've got this sort of totally weird triumvirate now where China is now sort of punishing Canada to tell them to send a message to America that they will not put up with those kind of Tariffs. So we no longer know whose allies, whose partners, whose enemies in this crazy thing. Do know that the Trump remaking of the world is actually showing us something, which is those who think that they can tame him, go along with him, sort of pat him down and flatter him. And those who just say, I've had enough. I've got to stand up for the country of which I am the leader. And if I don't, then I'm going to be out of power. (Time 0:12:20)
Reform Party Spat
Rupert Lowe, Reform MP, criticized Nigel Farage's leadership, leading to Lowe's suspension.
Reform claims Lowe's suspension resulted from bullying allegations, while Lowe denies these claims.
Transcript:
Jon Sopel
As the more eagle-eyed of you might have noticed, there seems to be a spat at the top of Britain's most insurgent, noisiest party reform. And the beginning of this is still unclear. The beginning is either when Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, gave an interview in which he essentially suggested that Nigel Farage was not the best man to be leading reform, Or he didn't particularly like the way he was doing it, or the beginning of this goes back to when reform purportedly told Rupert Lowe that there was an investigation into his behaviour With some of his office staff allegations of bullying. And I think the timing of this is absolutely crucial to understanding whether there is a witch hunt, a Stalinist purging of Rupert Lowe from the party, he's now been suspended, he's Had the reform whip taken away from him, or whether you believe that Rupert Lowe has actually done wrong and has actually been investigated for legitimate reasons and has given the Interview subsequently to the Mail as a way of getting on the front public foot. It is a very confusing picture right now. Reform are furious and are messaging all of us saying, that's not true, Rupert Lowe is wrong, he's been making things up. And Rupert Lowe has been in touch and has said, don't believe a word that reform has said.
Emily Maitlis
I think it's worth pointing out at this particular stage, and I say it delicately, that maybe neither side are Vestal virgins in any of this and that none of them are absolutely, utterly White as white and the most innocent people you have ever met. Just say that kind of lightly. But there is an awful lot of claim and counterclaim. And they have been briefing like crazy. And the war has been fought out on Twitter over the weekend. I've had a lot of contact myself personally from Rupert Lowe, who says the timeline is absolutely clear on this. And he's quoted me a Daily Mail article, which seems to back him up, which was that the first sign of trouble came after his Daily Mail interview was published on March the 5th, where he Said Nigel Farage may not be the most ideal leader. And that was followed up by the briefing saying that Rupert Lowe is being investigated for bullying and, you know, inappropriate behaviour in the workplace. And suddenly kind of the Reform Party going in for all this HR stuff, that we have a duty of care and stuff like that. It was all so woke. It seems so kind of alien to me. But anyway, that's what happened. And now they are slugging it out. Yeah. I (Time 0:16:48)
Reform Party's Image Problem
The public dispute between Farage and Lowe harms Reform Party's image.
The party's lack of broad support makes it vulnerable to such internal conflicts.
Transcript:
Emily Maitlis
With reform as well over the weekend. Reform have gone in all guns blazing. Do they think there's a danger they might have overplayed their hand?
Lewis Goodall
Yeah, so I think that, you know, what we've seen over the last 48, 72 hours has, for want of a better expression, been very unseemly. This is a parliamentary party. Let's not forget, this is a parliamentary party of five men. It's now four men because they have not been able to contain the mutual dislike and political differences of a parliamentary party of five people, which is now down to four, cut down By 20%. I had Gawain Toler on the show, on my LBC Sunday show, who had advice for us for many, many years when he was in UKIP and Brexit party and so on, saying, oh, you know, all parties have this. Look at Blair and Brown. Hang on a minute. Hang on a minute, right? Blair and Brown had over 400 MPs. This is a party with five. And I think the net effect, we can get distracted. Well, it's not distraction, but we can get caught up on the arcane details of what Lowe might have not have done or has done or whatever it happens to be. But I think the net political effect of all of this is to compound political problems that reform are experiencing alongside right now other populist parties in Europe. They are getting dragged down, back down again, as they were during the general election, by the way, on past positive comments that Farage has made about Putin. He's made too much of an umbilical connection between himself and the highly unpopular and highly combustible figure of Donald Trump, from which he cannot row back. And then on top of that, you now add all of this, which is, look, no one's heard of Rupert Lowe. No one. I mean, in the country at large, he is a figure on the online right. But honestly, I think, you know, 0.01% of people have heard of him. You could probably divide that figure by 10 and still be nowhere near. But all of this, well, it does. Journalists are noticing. They're noticing how absolutely unpleasant and vituperative all of this is, how pathetic it often is. I mean, you know, you've got Loewe alleging that he has been accused of dementia or that he's been briefed. It's been briefed about him that he has dementia by reform operatives. He's begging on a daily basis, Nigel Farage, to go to dinner anytime, any place, anywhere. And it lends a feeling of ill discipline, of a lack of seriousness that they desperately need if they're going to make the next leap, which they've been trying to do, which is be taken Seriously as a party of potential government. And that is especially damaging for a party like Reform. Why? Because it is a party without a substantial electoral base in the country. It doesn't even have the MEPs that it used to have when it was in the European Parliament, ironically enough, in the UKIP days. And so it is a party based on good feelings, on vibes, on sentiments in the country and in the media. And if journalists are watching all of this sort of all of the fallout from this, it changes the way they talk about reform and write about reform and broadcast about reform. And even if no one's heard about Rupert Lowe, that has a net political effect. (Time 0:20:20)
Farage and the Online Right
Farage is viewed as too establishment by some Reform supporters who favor more extreme figures.
Farage seeks broader appeal, while figures like Lowe cater to the online right.
Transcript:
Emily Maitlis
Oh, you all sound the same now. But there's something else that's going on here, which is that, and you know, maybe some of our listeners kind of will find this surprising, but Farage is seen as the establishment by An awful lot of people online who support reform, think that he's gone soft, he's a bit too liberal why don't you support tommy robinson why don't you support mass expulsion line you Mean yeah essentially exactly why don't you support the mass expulsion of immigrants from this country and so you have farage who has this clear political ambition to make his party Into a potential party of government and take even more seats from the Conservatives and Labour. But knowing that you've got maybe tack a tiny bit to the centre to do that. And you've got people like Rupert Lowe who are happy to say, you know, Tommy Robinson may not be my ideal cup of tea, but he's not that bad. Or, you know, we should be looking at the mass deportation of migrants in this country.
Lewis Goodall
And so online spear carriers for reform are thinking nige you've sold out look john i think that's right i think there are two broad elements to this right one is personal and it's about Animus and it's got a longer history and pedigree as well in this case it's between lowe and farage but look there is a long catalog of people that farage has seen off over the years. Usually whatever outfit Farage is leading, political outfit, whether it's UKIP, the Reform Party, Brexit Party, usually this town is only big enough for one person, and it's Nigel Farage. He tends to run it like an autocracy. It's a great strength. It's also a great weakness. So some of that is personal, but some of it, as you say, is political. Lowe, who, as I say, no one has really ever heard of in the country. People have obviously heard about Farage and is a well-known figure. No one's heard of Lowe, but he has nonetheless, bizarrely, weirdly become a kind of almost talismanic figure for the online cultural right ever since he was sort of plucked from obscurity By Elon And, you know, Musk has amplified all of the pretty extreme sometimes views and things that Lo has said, and also all of the vaguely banal things that he said as well. And there's speculation even that, you know, he's tweaked the algorithm so Lo receives an outsized attention on Twitter, on X, by comparison to that which is, you know, not insubstantial, But not massive, X following might suggest. So he has become associated and is very much on the right of the Reform Party, who wants to pursue a lot of these sort of cultural issues which animate the online radical and often radicalised Right a lot, but which Farage, and if we can say this, the left, I I suppose, in a way, or the more establishment wing of the Reform Party, believe that they've got those voters, the sort Of voters who are very interested in that, even on immigration, it's used like immigration. Farage thinks he's got enough credit in the bank that he's got all those people and that what they need, if they're serious about being something other than that which they have always Been, which is a pressure valve or a pressure group which drags the Conservative Party to the right, if they are serious about supplanting the Conservative Party, then they can't be Just at 20%. They need to be at 30% or 35%. Those voters who might be interested in what Farage has to say, but is worried or are worried about some of the past views he may have had and the idea he may be extreme. They think people like Lowe are dragging the party to a more excessive online right, cultural right, which is exactly where they don't want to be if they want to be serious about sort Of raising the ceiling of where the reform support in the country might be. (Time 0:24:30)
Shifting Perceptions of Social Media
Public perception of social media's harm, particularly to youth, has shifted negatively.
Many now support stricter age restrictions and warning labels on social media platforms.
Transcript:
Emily Maitlis
If you've been listening to the radio today and not just waiting for our podcast on LBC, you will know that it is Online Safety Day. And it's looking at the way the Online Safety Act is going to work and the pitfalls and how it can be implemented and all those sort of questions. But now we're going to talk to Luke Trill. Who else would we talk to at a time where we need answers from More In Common? And Luke, thanks so much for being with us. I know you've also been polling people's attitudes towards online safety, towards keeping kids safe.
Speaker 4
What are your top line findings? Well, I think the really striking thing is there has clearly been over the last few years a sea change in how we see social media and in particular its impact on young people. There seems to have been a sort of, I don't know what the sort of negative of a light bulb moment is, but you really see that across the polling. So the polling that we did for LBC today, we found that 74% now support raising the age at which you can access social media to 16, just 10% oppose that. 70% support cigarette style warnings on social media. And it's really interesting that when we talk to people in focus groups about social media, they will now make the comparison with something like drinking or cigarettes and say, well, You know, they're addictive and dangerous. Why aren't we doing something on social media? And interestingly, over half say that social media addiction is as serious or worse than drug or alcohol addiction. So, you know, it's quite a negative perception across the public as a whole on this.
Jon Sopel
Luke, will you just unpack that for us? When we look at cigarette warnings, they say things like, these will kill you. I mean, it's pretty stark. What kind of language do they think should be on social media warning you?
Speaker 4
I think it's, from the conversation we've had, it's obviously not quite that stark, but it's more the sort of things that you would see on gambling adverts for instance that this can Be addictive know when to take a break that comes up a lot and in particular as well linked to that more content warnings what's interesting is when we've spoken to parents it was actually Quite heartbreaking is the number of parents we spoke to kind of felt that some of their children's innocence had been lost when they'd seen certain things online, whether it was very Graphic violence or whether it was very sexualized content as well. There was real worries that they were losing their childhood. But I think the interesting thing is, and I think this is really important, is we also did a separate poll just of Gen Z. Because what we won't see is, look, is this just the latest moral panic that we're all worrying about? Or is it old foggydom from others? The interesting thing is the results amongst Gen Z matched what we saw across Britain's at large. So 62% of Gen Z Brits saying social media does more harm than good, tops their list of negatives for mental health. And again, and this is really striking and again, quite sad. What we found was that three quarters of Gen Z Brits, based on their experience, would keep their kids off social media for as long as possible. And half said they regretted the time that they spent on smartphones during their childhood. So it's not just projection. This is the internet generation saying, we don't like this either. (Time 0:30:27)
Government Action Needed
Governments must act on social media regulation because parents alone can't manage children's usage.
Collective action is needed to address the widespread impact of social media on youth.
Transcript:
Jon Sopel
They have just rolled back, haven't they? They've sort of backed off from the measures that schools wanted just last Friday, Luke. I guess if you were in the government shoes or if you were advising the government, would you say you are now out of step with public opinion by not doing more?
Speaker 4
Yeah, very definitely. I think, you know, I think one of the challenge often for politicians is that, you know, politicians tend to be lagging of public opinion on lots of things. We've talked about issues around climate change and stuff before as well. So I think they are behind public opinion because, and I think the reason this is different from lots of other political issues is it's so tangible to people. In all of the focus groups, we have the stories from parents about their struggles with their young people's use. And in particular, them saying, look, I'd love to ban my kid from doing it. I'd love to take their phone off them. I'd love to have more restrictions. Problem is, all of their friends are doing it. And I don't want to be ostracized. So unless government act, there's not much I can do. It really is that sort of classic collective action problem. So people are looking to the government to say, you know, we will help you rather than putting it on parents. (Time 0:35:26)
