J.D. Vance insulted British and French troops, sparking this discussion.
Trump's speech and Germany's economic shift are also discussed.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
Welcome to another live stream, Rest His Politics special, which started, the thought for this started when J.D. Vance started to insult French and British troops, even though he later denied it. Then we had Trump's speech overnight, which, again, pretty newsworthy. We also had this pretty amazing fiscal economic revolution in the German Federal Republic with the new incoming Chancellor. And then literally just before we started, Rory was sitting there in his kitchen, flicking through his phone and discovered something breaking news, Rory. Do you want to tell us? Well, yes. I mean, let's get (Time 0:02:46)
Illegal Tariffs
Trump's tariffs on Canada are illegal, lacking Congressional approval.
These tariffs severely impact the Canadian economy, which is deeply interconnected with the US.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Into Canada, which I think is the way of opening, and then we'll get on to those other three subjects. So a quick reminder for people, we've been doing a lot on Canada recently. We've just interviewed Christopher Freeland and Mark Carney, who are the two leading contenders, one of whom, probably Mark Carney, but one of whom will be the Canadian Prime Minister In five days, and you can listen to that on leading. And why are we concentrating so much on Canada? And we also did quite a lot of the last podcast on Canada. Well, because Canada is not just one of the world's largest economies. You know, it's got an economy almost the same size as the United Kingdom's. It's got a GDP per capita considerably larger than that of the United Kingdom. But it is, of course, the US's nearest neighbor. And the reason why we're starting with it is that Donald Trump announced that he would reimpose 25% tariffs on Canada, 25% on Mexico, 20% on China. And people remember, he imposed it 30 days ago. This is incidentally a completely illegal thing. Theoretically, he's supposed to spend 180 days in terms of treaty, and he's meant to get congressional approval, but he just does it. Canada responded, you thought, quite well, but they did make a concession. And we'll begin to understand why they made a concession because of the scale of what this is doing to the Canadian economy. Their concession was they set up a fentanyl czar, they moved troops to the border. And I think we thought at the time that that probably had been enough for Trump to go away for a bit, instead of which he announced actually it's only a 30-day suspension and it's now been Re-announced. And the impacts of this are unbelievable. (Time 0:03:31)
US Threats to Canada
The US is threatening Canada with expulsion from the Five Eyes intelligence network.
Border changes, military cooperation, and water resources are also being leveraged.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
So just a few facts. 75% of all Canadian exports go to the United States. 33% of all Canadian imports come from the United States. 18%, so nearly a fifth of the Canadian economy, is connected to exporting from the United States. 2.4 million jobs in Canada directly connected to exporting to the United States. And if this is kept in place, modeling is unbelievably difficult because there are incredible second and third order impacts. Reuters did an article this morning suggesting inflation will get up to 7.2%. GDP will contract by 2.6%. That's a very, very serious contraction. Unemployment will go up 7%. But that's just the beginning. Because you shared a graphic with us, which I think came out from the BBC, illustrating how complicated this can be, that the 25% tariffs may be underestimating. You follow a single bit of piping going uh into an american car it'll go from canada all the way down to mexico get a 25 tariff in mexico and then come back again um now to add to that the story That i was just talking about before we came on which joshy uh my my uh one of the people i admire greatly partly because he's been having a good fight with jd vance about Ukraine, has just Tweeted out that America is threatening Canada with expulsion from Five Eyes, which is the intelligence-sharing network between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, And the United States. It's threatening border changes. And according to Canadian Foreign Minister Jolie, that Trump officials say that they are putting military cooperation and water on the table. So military cooperation includes things like continental air defence. Like we must be prepared to defend our sovereignty, not just with military spending, but with a population that is engaged, trained and ready. Peter MacLeod calling for civil defence force where every Canadian has a role to play. So this is the beginning of something pretty serious. (Time 0:05:06)
Trudeau's Criticism
Trudeau called Trump's tariff decision 'dumb', echoing the Wall Street Journal.
Fox News even acknowledged the tariffs would raise prices for Americans, contradicting Trump.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
When you first told me, you read verbatim what your friend tweeted, my initial reaction was all that sort of thing you say when you're declaring war on somebody. This five I, we've talked about the five I's. And when we talked to David McCloskey from The Rest is Classified, he was explaining how that helps. It goes back to the basic idea that intelligence sharing is a stronger way of countries defending themselves and each other. And it's been longstanding to just do that. And right in the middle of this leadership election that's about to find the new prime minister, I wonder whether it's a direct response to the fact that Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime minister, who's in the last week of his premiership, so probably a bit gung-ho, but I think he's a pretty thoughtful guy. But he said his immediate reaction to the Trump tariff announcement was to say, it's not often that I agree with the Wall Street Journal, but when they say that you're dumb-dolled in Relation to this, they're absolutely right. You may be a smart guy, but this is a very dumb thing to do. And the other thing I saw was on Fox News, of all places, a reporter explaining how this was going to put the prices up for ordinary Americans buying the things that they like to buy. Whereas Trump, the post-truth president, who likes to lie more than he likes to tell the truth, constantly saying, this is all going to be paid for by the country that we're putting the Tariffs on. (Time 0:07:25)
Trump's Consistency
Trump's long-held views on tariffs and foreign policy are consistent with his current actions.
His past restraint was likely due to advisors, whereas he now feels emboldened.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Just because we're going to get into this more. One of the things I've been reflecting on a great deal, because we just talked to Michael Wolfe as an interview for Leading, which will be coming out soon, who is a friend of yours who's Written four books on Trump and had this incredible access of being allowed to spend seven months in the White House in the first Trump presidency. And his general tendency has been to downplay the threat from Trump and to say he didn't actually do that much damage first time and he's largely about entertainment and news stories. There's not really a consistent policy threat. I want to push back against this because I think tariffs is a good route into this. And then we'll move on to J.D. Vance and allies and NATO and Ukraine. So Trump has been saying that tariffs is one of the most beautiful words in the English language for many, many years now. In fact, he's on the record praising tariffs back in the late 80s. I'm just reading a great book at the moment called America First about America's more than 100-year romance from the American right with authoritarian dictators, in particular with Germany in the First and Second World War. And in that book, describing Trump's foreign policy in 2016, says that Trump believed that American allies mooched on the United States, I would say just exploited it, that there was No US national interest in investing in alliances in Europe and Asia, that Ukraine belonged firmly within Putin's sphere of influence, and that dictators like Putin were worthy of Emulation. And again, I would suggest that's pretty consistent. That's eight, nine years ago. It doesn't look like he's changed very much. In fact, actually...
Alastair Campbell
No, he has changed. He's on that track now than he was.
Rory Stewart
And I guess one of the, I'm going to finish here, but one of the paradoxes is, given all these beliefs, maybe the surprising thing isn't so much why he's doing all this stuff now. Maybe more surprising is why he didn't do more of this stuff in 2017 to 2021. (Time 0:09:02)
Vance's Insult
J.D. Vance's comments about a "random country" sparked outrage among British veterans and media.
This highlights Vance's ignorance, given the UK's extensive military involvement.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
An interesting character. I have read his book, Hillbilly Elegy. It is very interesting. He did come from an extraordinarily poor background. But I think he's become a pretty repellent human being. And he went on to say that this would be a better security guarantee than the idea of 20,000 soldiers from some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 to 40 years. Well, there's only two countries that are on the record. Others have indicated that they might take part, but there are only two countries that have actually said we would put, quotes, boots on the ground. That is the United Kingdom and So not surprisingly, people like the Shadow Defense Secretary, people like Johnny Mercer, former veteran, lots of soldiers, people like that guy who Was Nickle. Was it John Nickle who was taken hostage? Pilot, yeah. The pilot who was taken hostage. So a lot of very angry soldiers out there. And front page of the British newspapers, Daily Express, Daily Star. Water wall, absolutely vile about Vance. And I've got, as you know, a couple of very good friends who are in Special Forces, and they were absolutely livid. And one of them just sent me a very, very short message of all the places that he had fought in alongside Americans in his nearly 20-year career. (Time 0:14:29)
Vance's Ignorance
Vance's claim about a "random country" is nonsensical, as many countries supported the US in past wars.
Numerous nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, deployed troops to Afghanistan and Iraq.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Into this a little bit more, but just to follow this story through. Vance then followed on this communications horror by making it even worse. He then came out and say, I didn't mention the UK or France. Now, so then the question is, so who is it you did meet? Who is this random country that hasn't fought a war in 30, 40 years? So, I was thinking back to my time in Iraq and Afghanistan. And Afghanistan, between 2010, 2017, any one time, the UK had about 10,000 soldiers on the ground, and France had about 4,000. But get this, Germany had 5,000, Italy had 4,000, Canada had 3,000, the Dutch had 2,000. The Poles, the Australians, the Spanish, the Danes, the Romanians, the Turks had about 1,000 each, the Bulgarians, the Belgians, the Norwegians, the Czechs had over 500. In Iraq, the South Koreans had 3,600. The Ukrainians had 1,600 helping the Americans. Japan had troops on the ground. And the actual numbers of people we deployed was much bigger. Britain deployed 137,000 individual personnel deployments, because remember, we were there for 20 years. So, you have 10,000 there at one time, you have to keep rotating them in and out on six-month rotations. So the question then for J.D. Vance is, given that over 50 countries came in to back the United States when the United States was attacked after 9-11. It must be Luxembourg.
Alastair Campbell
It must be Luxembourg, Andorra, Fairer Wilds, Greenland.
Rory Stewart
It might be Greenland. Well, the Danes had troops on the ground. I think Luxembourg contributed. I mean, I think if you really pin Vance down and try to ask him which country he means, he's really stuck because there were more than 50 countries on the ground. (Time 0:15:57)
UK Military History
Vance's media ecosystem reinforces his views due to lack of challenging perspectives.
Campbell lists the UK's military involvements, highlighting their significant contributions.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
But this is what is so annoying about the way that the media ecosystem works in America. I mean, what does Vance actually do? He sits on the sofa and listens to Donald Trump and tries to get him riled up with Zelensky. He checks his Twitter feed probably about four hours a day looking at his Twitter feed and gets into spats with people like you and Medi Hassan, other journalists. And then the other thing that he does is he does interviews with Fox News. And I think this is one of the reasons. And by the way, JD, if you're listening, we'd love to have you on the podcast. One of the reasons I think they don't, they get, they make mistakes is because they're always doing these interviews with people who just agree with them. That interview where they talk about everything that Biden and the Europeans tried to do to stop, stop Putin invading. And the interviewer says, and he's still invaded. And the guy starts laughing. And then Vance starts laughing. Yeah, he's still invaded. And the look is sort of terrible. And but let me just a brief history lesson for anybody who wants to hear these things and can feed this back to J.D. Vance. 1990 to 91, First Gulf War, 392 fatalities, including 47 British personnel, 53,000 British troops involved. Bosnian War, 59 British fatalities out of 2,400 troops who were there as part of UNPREFOR. Kosovo War, actually, that was a casualty-wise, the NATO casualties were fairly low. We had 4,000 troops there alongside 7,000 American troops. They talk about every war they've ever done as though it's all about them. There were 40,000 NATO troops, most of those countries that you said there. Afghanistan, 457. UK military, 457 casualties. Killed, killed. 457 deaths. Deaths, deaths. Deaths. Out of 900. We had 150,000 overall, 9,500 at the peak. Iraq, 179 British soldiers killed out of 140,000 that took part. And then you go through Operation Desert Fox, Sierra Leone. We had a soldier killed. I can remember it vividly. We had a soldier killed in combat in Sierra Leone. And if you go to Sierra Leone these days, people will say that that was the British, essentially say. And then you go into Libya. And then also Operation Prosperity Garden is going on now. So there are British forces, small in number, alongside Americans right now in Yemen. (Time 0:17:47)
Shared Sacrifices
Stewart recounts personal experiences with casualties and multinational cooperation in Iraq and Afghanistan.
He emphasizes the shared sacrifices and the value of alliances.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
So, I mean, I think the other thing is to bring it down to individuals. So like almost everybody who was in Afghanistan, Iraq, I knew people who were killed, and I knew many people who were permanently injured. And they did so alongside Americans. Some of them were killed by Americans in friendly fire accidents. So, I remember at the beginning of 2003 in Iraq, Lance Corporal Matty Hull was killed when a US aircraft fired on the Blues and Royals. I was in Afghanistan when Stephen Farrell, who was a New York Times journalist, was freed by a British operation in which Corporal John Harrison was killed. And one of the things that never really came off in Parliament is that Prime Ministers read out the names of soldiers. So I remember my first Prime Minister's question, watching David Cameron say, I'd like to pay tribute from 40 Commando to Corporal Stephen Curley. But what they don't really tell you is who these people were. So Stephen Curley was a mountain warfare specialist. He was an amazingly inspiring Marine. He had saved another soldier at huge risk to his own life. He'd been killed by a bomb in a small alley in Sangin on patrol. And so we're talking here about hundreds of British and European lives that have been lost. I served in Nasseria alongside the Italians, saw an Italian soldier take a round in the leg. I saw the head of my bodyguard teams in New Zealander manning the general purpose machine gun, trying to keep sheer militia back from coming over our fence line. So these are wars in which the US relied on 70 or 80 years of goodwill. American power, martial plans, all American development assistance, its military integration to call on other nations to come to its aid. It was solidarity about an attack on the United States in 9-11. That attack was not that al-Qaeda attacked Denmark or Norway or Ukraine. Ukraine deployed into Iraq to help the United States. And what Vance has done is such an astonishing revelation of his profound ignorance, his insecurity, his silliness, his complete unsuitability for the role of vice president. (Time 0:20:22)
Shifting US Attitudes
The US historically valued allies, showing gratitude even with superior resources.
Stewart contrasts this past graciousness with the current disregard under Trump.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
The America that I knew when I began my career, very briefly in the military and then joining the foreign office, bent over backwards to make allies feel valued, even when America had More troops on the ground, even when it was spending more money. I remember when I was deployed, my second posting to Montenegro, that the Americans came in to see us and they said, we're very pleased you're going to Montenegro. And we're very sorry that we don't have more people on the ground there. We're very sorry that we can't share much more with you. We're so grateful for all you're doing. And even at the time, I thought they're blowing smoke. They probably do have a lot more assets and a lot more information than we do in Montenegro. But they at least pretended. Right. They gave us a lot of credit. Large American coming up to me in the street and saying, I hear you haven't got a good evacuation plan. My evacuation plan was supposed to be that I was supposed to walk 40 miles to the Albanian border if something went wrong. And he said, I've got two Black Hawk helicopters at the airport. And if you're ever in any trouble, here's my number and I'll get you out. So that was the America that I knew where there was no doubt, of course, that the United States had the kit, had the money, had the influence, but they've bent over backwards to be gracious And courteous towards their allies. (Time 0:24:52)
German Fiscal Shift
Germany's debt break will be reformed to exempt defense spending.
This move signifies a major shift in Germany's fiscal policy amidst current threats.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
And so what happened yesterday was that Friedrich Merz and Markus Serda, the leader of the CSU, the Bavarian sister party, they did a press event after a meeting with Lars Klingbeil, One of the leaders of the STP, and another coalition negotiator. And they announced that this famous debt break that they have is going to be reformed. And they're going to do this before the new government is formed, so that they can stop the blocking minority that the AFD and the link between them would be able to mount. And this will exempt defense spending from the debt break, the Constitution's fiscal restraint. So that is a big, big deal. And essentially what he said was, and this again, it does, it does sound rather like the speech I said he should make, as he basically said, in view of the threats to our freedom and peace On the continent, whatever it takes has to now apply to the country's defense. (Time 0:35:31)
Quit Trump's Game
Stop playing Trump's game, as it only empowers his demands and undermines alliances.
Recognize Trump's lack of commitment to Ukraine and the futility of appeasement.
Transcript:
Rory Stewart
Strong signal and then let me just put in my last thing there quit playing trump's game stop it trump could not have been clearer for more than a decade that he believes putin's line on Ukraine we are humiliating ourselves again and again bending over backwards begging giving him exactly what he wants, which is that he just feels he can demand anything at the moment From people. We're abandoning Canada and not stepping up for what should be one of our closest allies in the world. We are about to give away $500 billion of Ukraine's mineral resources, and there is nothing coming in return. Nothing. And at some point, this optimism bias needs to be challenged. And at some point, this desperate spectacle of leaders turning up to flatter Trump, believing somehow this is the last chance saloon. You know, I talked to you about this awful briefing against Zelensky. You know, Rutter, the NATO Secretary General criticizing him, people saying immediately afterwards he didn't quite wear the right clothes, all of this tying in to the Katty Kay, Mooch Story that, oh, it's very obvious what needs to happen. Zelensky just needs to apologize, go on Fox News, humiliate himself. And then what? And the answer is exactly nothing. I mean, Trump has, I mean, look, don't know how to repeat this enough. Trump has no interest in American troops or American planes doing anything in Ukraine. Yeah. So he cannot provide a security guarantee. (Time 0:42:10)
Vance's Accountability
Campbell suggests Vance should meet a British veteran to understand the impact of his words.
The discussion emphasizes the broad interest in these topics, evidenced by high viewership.
Transcript:
Alastair Campbell
My final word, Rory, is a message to J.D. Vance that if and when the state visit happens and he comes with Trump, I'd like him to meet my friend Bobby from Hereford. He wants to speak to him. Bobby from Hereford is really not happy with JD. Now, listen, this is a sort of, what day is it today? Wednesday. So this is Wednesday. It's a Wednesday afternoon. I don't know how many of you are at work, but there are over 15,000 of you on this stream. And the live show that we did the other day, Rory, on the back of the Zelensky meeting, over 2 million people we had by the end of it who watched it. So there's a lot of interest in this. If you've enjoyed today's stream, do please hit subscribe, become a subscriber. And Rory will tell you all sorts of great things that we get out of that. I'm always a bit more embarrassed because he's, he's sort of probably, he's a bit populist about it. He says, you know, we have exclusive interviews that, that no, we did an interview with Trump the other day, but we just gave it to subscribers. But are gonna we're gonna so this has been live thank you for all of you who watched and listened we'll put out this on general release overnight and then on friday we'll put out our question
Rory Stewart
Time where we've got some very very interesting but if you want to listen earlier to the question time become a subscriber and that's also true for some of the interviews we're going To put out and other stuff. Thank you all very, very, very much for listening. (Time 0:43:46)
